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Mattel Disney Pixar Diecast CARS: Lenticulars State of the State + New Look

Lenticulars are the ‘reality stars’ of CARS – easy to hate but hard to look away :-)

Like reality TV, it’s understandable why you might hate it but it does serve a purpose.

For completists who have been collecting all along, they have crashed the party and muddied the waters.

On the logistics side, it does add undue complexity in trying to sort out that the CHASE CARS are not lenticulars in a lenticular line but that there are no non-lenticular CHASE CARS in the Final lap series which is only at Target – simplicity usually wins the day but what’s here is here.

In some ways, the production aspects have also been disappointing with the limited effects of the lenticular eye movements but like the weather, that too is changing … the newer ones are actually different than the older releases – you know, the ones from a month ago …

And the general attempt to jazz up the line is not terrible theoretically. Retailers and retail buyers are sometimes like an ADD kid in a giant rolling ball – what’s shiny and new beats out the solid and steady. So, lenticulars served to calm the ‘what else have you got that lights up’ jitters of retailers and of course, show a 2-year old kid a non-lenticular and a lenticular and they will pick the one with movement – and of course, a mini-generation has already passed who have only seen CARS on DVD – it was not a theater event deal but just another movie on disc … and it’s fine that they have a new lineup to start from … the one big problem is the poor case assortments (for all non-WM stores that dud not receive the endcap trays).

For stores that got the regular 24-pack, for example, if they received two cases of A&B, then they had @30 Lightning McQueen’s out of 96 CARS … and while Lightning McQueen is certainly important, the end result is that even if most of the other “townies” sold out – the end result generated only short term excitement as in most stores, all the non-Lightning McQueen’s are pretty much gone … so it’s back to square one.

For the WM stores that got the endcap trays … 192 total CARS? (I think).

WM

Of course, all the CHASE CARS are gone and in the 4-5 stores where the trays are still up, sell through ranges from about 50% gone to maybe 10% gone.

So, that means out of 192 CARS, there are anywhere from 100-170 CARS left of 192. The new WM display endcap shipper will be going up in the next few days – the number is 280 more CARS (though some may be haulers, playsets or other merchandise) but at minimum, it might be another 192 CARS … Even if it ships with the Darrell Cartrip CHASE & the King Piston Cup CHASE which will clearly sell out, what will the sell through rate be for the others?

The most obvious problem is the sure-bet long time buying segment of the CARS segment is not all in on the lenticulars … unlike a natural marketplace where buyers will fall over the natural course of a product line, you hope to keep bringing in new customers to replace those moving on – and that is certainly true of the Final Lap buyers – the committed fanbase and enthused are carrying onto the Final Lap CARS – again, there is always some attrition but the dropoff outside economic uncertainty times shows no unwarranted concern. You just have to ask yourself how many Final Lap CARS are left from the first case and how many lenticulars are left on the pegs?

The problem is really simple mathematics – the cases last year contained up to 33% CARS that were new or less than a month old. Lenticular cases? 4%. CASE A contained exactly one new CAR – Salutin’ Sarge – out of 24 … 4%. And remember, because the Final Lap Series is its own entity (molds, cards, assortments, shipping), etc, they are not an apples to apples replacement in terms of revenue … but we won’t really know how lenticulars are doing until after the holiday dust settles … even in the best case scenario where there are less than 100 CARS left from the first endcap shipper per store, how will stores fair with an additional 192 or more lenticular CARS?

New WM

(from Nikko as we speak, new WM shipper arrived – more of CASE A-C, some Chick Hicks CHASE but no KING with Piston Cups … he was there as they opened).

Will a large selection serve as an enticement  for newbie holiday shopping? And those 300 or so CARS on the shelf will quickly dwindle down in the next 7 weeks? Will the re-release of the Blu Ray DVD (with its two CARS) bring in tens of thousands of new kids? Of course, these CARS are also competing  against Mater Tall Tales CARS (and hamsters :-)   ). Will there be a few hundred CARS left at a few thousand WM’s? (200 CARS at 1,000 WM’s is 200,000 CARS … not exactly an unlikely scenario) … Will WM stop ordering CARS for 4 months?

The test is the next 7 weeks … the lenticular line is here to stay but the big question is whether sales in the remainder of 2009 will affect the ordering scenario of the major retailers for the 4 months after in 2010 … if their computer shows 200,000 or more? It shouldn’t affect the rest of the line very much but since the lenticular is the new mainline … we shall have to wait and see … meanwhile, Dorvack1 found these on the shelf in the SF Bay Area and was nice enough to send some nice pics of the “Final Lap Lenticular” card design (unofficial name):

Cards
Very classy looking.

Darrell
The new CHASE look.

Chase
Um, good luck!

Here’s CASE E in case you’re curious …

Lenticular Case E 2009

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metroxing 29 October 2009 Mattel Disney Pixar CARS 77 Comments

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